Published

2008-01-01

Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories

Estimación de la susceptibilidad ante deslizamientos: aplicación de conjuntos difusos y las teorías de la posibilidad y de la evidencia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v28n1.14865

Keywords:

landslide, susceptibility, uncertainty, possibility theory, evidence-based theory (en)
deslizamientos, susceptibilidad, incertidumbre, conjuntos difusos, teoría de posibilidad, teoría de la evidencia (es)

Authors

  • Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas Instituto de investigaciones sobre incertidumbre

A landslide susceptibility model was developed for the city of Manizales, Colombia; landslides have been the city’s main environmental problem. Fuzzy sets and possibility and evidence-based theories were used to construct the model due to the set of circumstances and uncertainty involved in the modelling; uncertainty particularly concerned the lack of representative data and the need for systematically coordinating subjective information. Susceptibility and the uncertainty were estimated via data processing; the model contained data concerning mass vulnerability and uncertainty. Output data was expressed on a map defined by linguistic categories or uncertain labels as having low, medium, high and very high susceptibility; this was considered appropriate for representing susceptibility. A fuzzy spectrum was developed for classifying susceptibility levels according to perception and expert opinion. The model showed levels of susceptibility in the study area, ranging from low to high susceptibility (medium susceptibility being more frequent). This article shows the details concerning systematic data processing by presenting theories and tools regarding uncertainty. The concept of fuzzy parameters is introduced; this is useful in modelling phenomena regarding uncertainty, complexity and nonlinear performance, showing that susceptibility modelling can be feasible. The paper also shows the great convenience of incorporating uncertainty into modelling and decision-making. However, quantifying susceptibility is not suitable when modelling identified uncertainty because incorporating model output information cannot be reduced into exact or real numerical quantities when the nature of the variables is particularly uncertain. The latter concept is applicable to risk assessment.

Se muestra el proceso de estimación de un modelo de susceptibilidad por deslizamientos inducidos por lluvia para la ciudad de Manizales, capital en donde la ocurrencia de deslizamientos es el principal problema ambiental. Se emplearon las herramientas de la teoría de los conjuntos difusos, la teoría de la posibilidad y la teoría de la evidencia, dadas las circunstancias y contenidos de incertidumbre que se presentan en la modelación, que en la localidad se refieren a la ausencia de datos representativos y a la necesidad de articular sistemáticamente informaciones subjetivas. El enfoque adoptado para la estimación de la susceptibilidad se refiere al tratamiento de las incertidumbres asociadas y consiste en su estimación y conservación a través del procesamiento de los datos. El modelo de susceptibilidad desarrollado procesa los datos de vulnerabilidad de las masas en la localidad y sus incertidumbres. Los datos finales del modelo se expresan mediante un mapa definido en categorías lingüísticas o etiquetas inciertas como: baja, media, alta, muy alta susceptibilidad, que se consideran adecuadas para la comunicación del riesgo.  Se desarrolló igualmente un espectro difuso con el cual se clasifican los niveles de susceptibilidad a partir de la percepción y opinión de expertos. El modelo muestra que en la zona de estudio se presentan niveles de susceptibilidad que comprenden grados de bajos a altos, siendo más frecuentes las susceptibilidades medias. El artículo despliega los detalles del procesamiento sistemático de los datos. Se introduce el concepto de parámetro difuso, útil en la modelación de fenómenos con incertidumbre, complejos y no lineales. Se indica que la modelación de la susceptibilidad puede ser factible a través de estas teorías y herramientas de incertidumbre. Se señala en el papel, igualmente, la alta conveniencia de incorporar la incertidumbre en los procesos de modelación y de toma decisiones. Se concluye que si en una modelación se incorporan incertidumbres como las identificadas, la cuantificación de la susceptibilidad no es adecuada, en cuanto que no es consistente reducir la información de salida de un modelo dado, a cantidades numéricas exactas o reales, cuando la naturaleza de las variables es particularmente incierta. Lo anterior puede hacerse extensivo a la estimación del riesgo. El trabajo realizado puede considerarse como una investigación analítica-sintética.

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How to Cite

APA

Chivatá Cárdenas, I. (2008). Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories. Ingeniería e Investigación, 28(1), 26–40. https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v28n1.14865

ACM

[1]
Chivatá Cárdenas, I. 2008. Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories. Ingeniería e Investigación. 28, 1 (Jan. 2008), 26–40. DOI:https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v28n1.14865.

ACS

(1)
Chivatá Cárdenas, I. Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories. Ing. Inv. 2008, 28, 26-40.

ABNT

CHIVATÁ CÁRDENAS, I. Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories. Ingeniería e Investigación, [S. l.], v. 28, n. 1, p. 26–40, 2008. DOI: 10.15446/ing.investig.v28n1.14865. Disponível em: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ingeinv/article/view/14865. Acesso em: 28 mar. 2024.

Chicago

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen. 2008. “Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories”. Ingeniería E Investigación 28 (1):26-40. https://doi.org/10.15446/ing.investig.v28n1.14865.

Harvard

Chivatá Cárdenas, I. (2008) “Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories”, Ingeniería e Investigación, 28(1), pp. 26–40. doi: 10.15446/ing.investig.v28n1.14865.

IEEE

[1]
I. Chivatá Cárdenas, “Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories”, Ing. Inv., vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 26–40, Jan. 2008.

MLA

Chivatá Cárdenas, I. “Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories”. Ingeniería e Investigación, vol. 28, no. 1, Jan. 2008, pp. 26-40, doi:10.15446/ing.investig.v28n1.14865.

Turabian

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen. “Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories”. Ingeniería e Investigación 28, no. 1 (January 1, 2008): 26–40. Accessed March 28, 2024. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ingeinv/article/view/14865.

Vancouver

1.
Chivatá Cárdenas I. Assessing landslide susceptibility by applying fuzzy sets, possibility evidence-based theories. Ing. Inv. [Internet]. 2008 Jan. 1 [cited 2024 Mar. 28];28(1):26-40. Available from: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ingeinv/article/view/14865

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